Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere 60 days in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.